Who started on Vietnam?

Since 2008, many economic indicators in Vietnam have lit red. As crude oil and food prices soared, Vietnam's inflation worsened. In May, Vietnam’s annual inflation rate soared to 25.2%, the highest in 13 years. However, the central bank of Vietnam's benchmark interest rate is only 12%, which fails to effectively control inflation expectations. From January to May, Vietnam’s trade deficit reached 14.4 billion U.S. dollars due to rising international energy, building materials and fertilizer prices. Although the continuous inflow of capital in the past few years has greatly increased Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves, it is still lower than Vietnam’s total foreign debt. According to estimates by the World Bank, Vietnam’s foreign debt this year will reach US$24 billion, accounting for 30.2% of GDP.

　　 In 2006, the Vietnamese stock market ranked among the most popular markets in the world. The main stock indexes rose by 145%. In the first two months of 2007, they rose by 51%. This boosted the total market value of the Vietnamese stock market from less than US$1 billion in early 2006 to US$15 billion.

　　 At the end of January 2007, the P/E ratio of the 20 largest listed companies in Vietnam has reached 73 times, which is much higher than the valuation level of ordinary emerging markets. The International Monetary Fund issued a warning on stock market risks to Vietnam in early March 2007.

　　 The Wall Street Journal believes that Vietnam’s inflation is increasing and may even evolve into a full-blown crisis. This is a wake-up call for other Asian countries that are struggling to control skyrocketing prices. Analysts believe that if the central banks of Asian countries do not act quickly to curb rising prices, Vietnam will be a lesson for the past.

　　 The international investment bank Morgan Stanley issued a warning on May 28, 2008, stating that Vietnam’s current account deficit, foreign reserves, and inflation are all out of touch with the current exchange rate. Therefore, basic conditions for a currency crisis have emerged. Under the influence of insufficient foreign reserves, serious economic imbalances and high inflation, the Vietnamese dong will face huge depreciation pressure. The country may follow Thailand’s 1997 footsteps and be attacked. It is feared that a 39% depreciation in one year will repeat the 97 storm, which will affect the outbreak of a currency crisis in the region. ".

　　 The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the U.S. economy has been in a state of severe anemia. If the body has been weakened for too long, some blood must be transfused, otherwise there is a danger of life. The three months of June, July, and August are the critical point of life-threatening American loan maturity, which requires a large amount of dollars to flow back to make up for the hole in the subprime mortgage crisis. If you are not careful, the US economy may be in shock at any time. Therefore, the shearing shears that the United States has been dangling in Asia for a long time have finally been cut off. Everyone has been paying too much attention to the big sheep of India, China, and Japan for a long time. No one would think: the United States this The second goal turned out to be this lamb in Vietnam.

The American scissors were cut off, and misfortune came from the sky. Vietnam was unprepared and was caught off guard by the United States. The vomiting of blood was still minor. Improper handling was even more devastating for the country’s economy. Vietnam wanted to cry without tears: America I have always wanted to take advantage of the contradictions between China and Vietnam to win over Vietnam. With China as a common "strategic adversary", the United States and Vietnam have been "close as allies" in recent years. Vietnam's visit to the United States has to "vigorously develop Vietnam-US relations." At a time of rapid economic development, Vietnam thought that it had a strong waist and found the U.S. umbrella. It became dizzy and thought that it had the big capital to compete with China for the South China Sea. China said it shelved the dispute to develop together. It also thought that China was scared, and actually snorted its nose up into the sky. Vietnam is now stabbed in the back by the United States, endangering life, only to remember that the United States is a wolf, and even the intestines are repented, and only then panicked to come to "comrades and brothers" China for help. .

　　Why does the U.S. cut Vietnamese wool?

Vietnam’s sheep is too small. In 2007, Vietnam’s GDP was only 71.3 billion U.S. dollars and foreign debt was 24 billion U.S. dollars. Vietnam’s total official reserves including gold were 19.93 billion U.S. dollars; 19.93 billion U.S. dollars-14.4 billion U.S. dollars = 5.53 billion U.S. dollars. Vietnam’s foreign reserves are only about US$5.53 billion, which is not enough for Vietnam’s three-month import expenditure. When the United States wants to cut Vietnam's wool, the largest amount is about 1 billion U.S. dollars returning to the United States, which is basically not enough to plug his hole.

　　The United States chooses Vietnam. The United States has six purposes:

1. In China’s neighboring countries, Vietnam has the worst line of financial defense, with the most economic loopholes. According to the principle of the Western civilization system, the weakest will be eaten first, and the price will be the least; while China is a hard bone, the United States simply wants to chew. Can't chew. (What are China’s 1.7 trillion foreign exchange reserves and 400 billion U.S. Treasury bonds used for?)

　　 Japan has long been sweating on its forehead. After learning the lessons of the Plaza Accord, it keeps its eyes wide open all day long. Anti-US is like anti-thief. The purse is tightly covered and the United States is not easy to start. Cut Korea? South Korea has been harvested once in 1997 (that time South Korea even sold its sovereignty), and then harvested again. South Korea, an ally, is completely wounded and will definitely turn its face. Moreover, harvesting South Korea is tantamount to increasing the difficulty of the United States on the North Korean nuclear issue. It has helped North Korea. Can you start cutting it? Shearing Indian wool is in vain for China, and the United States does not want to do it yet. Indonesia has already cut it once, and it's strange that it won't go wrong again. The United States can't resist severe ischemia, and there is no more choice. Who will eat it if you don't eat Vietnam?

2. Killing Vietnam is too little supplement for the United States, and the effect can only be considered a little bit at best. However, if the large amount of hot foreign capital staying in the Asian economic zone is diverted to the United States for fear of the Asian financial crisis, the United States can benefit a lot. .

　　The US economy is sluggish because the booming Asian economy has attracted a large amount of foreign capital, and the departure of a large amount of foreign capital from the United States has become an indicator of the US subprime mortgage crisis. So for the United States, throwing a bomb in the most prosperous Asian economic zone is actually blowing away the hot money there and attracting the United States. By killing Vietnam and letting bloodletting, these hot capital foreign capitals will worry about the economic security of the entire Asia. It will appear in their minds that they will consider retreating to a safe economic zone in 1997. The only countries that can choose from these funds are : China, the United States, Europe. And the Fed stopped cutting interest rates, which gave these funds a signal. (Interestingly, the European Central Bank immediately followed the United States saying that Europe might also raise interest rates, so the US dollar fell again. Isn't this a mess!)

3. The finance ministers of China, Japan, South Korea and the 10 ASEAN countries set up a common foreign exchange reserve fund of US$80 billion in May to withstand possible financial crises-this is quite unfavorable for the United States: Asia has China. For the backbone, the future of the United States will be too difficult for us to do whatever we want. The United States wants to test the efficiency of this $80 billion and China's performance at critical times. Vietnam is such a touchstone.

　　4. In the eyes of Western countries, Vietnam is still a powerful country, and there are not many friends around. The United States slaughtered Vietnam and let it bloodlett will not cause public outrage in the world. Attacking Vietnam, a socialist country, is conducive to maintaining the domestic capitalist interests of the United States and the Western world: the success of the Chinese model has made the United States and other Westerners re-examine the socialist system. And specifically killing Vietnam is beneficial to quell this trend of thought: to prove that the Chinese model is not good.

　　 5. The financial crisis in Vietnam, a socialist country, is a threat to North Korea, especially Cuba’s economic reforms. Especially for Cuba, a country that has just begun to make reforms, the blow is particularly severe: If the United States spreads various rumors in Cuba, Raul is likely to lose power. In fact, the United States does not want Cuba to carry out economic reforms at all - because it knows that Raul is taking the right path.

　　6. If Vietnam is brought down, China must save it, so it can consume Chinese ammunition. (After the floods in Myanmar and the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, Vietnam’s financial crisis came, and the United States hit it hard.) China is the second largest economy in Asia and the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves. It is also a neighboring country with Vietnam. It is a socialist country. If Vietnam is not saved, China will suffer greater losses in the international arena, especially in Asia, so that the United States will benefit. Moreover, the United States can look at what methods China has in order to find flaws.

　　Understanding the underlying reasons for the American shearing of Vietnamese wool, we can take corrective actions in a targeted manner. So, what are China's countermeasures and ideas?

　　 1. China will help Vietnam get rid of this financial crisis. After all, China has always been good to its neighbors since ancient times. Now that we are developing, we need more peace and tranquility in neighboring countries, and helping Vietnam is also saving the Asian economy. Make neighboring countries more trust in China, and further play the role of China's backbone.

　　 2. Whether Vietnam’s crisis is temporary or not depends entirely on the attitude of China as a big country. The Asian Stability Fund has a certain role, but if China does not help, Vietnam will not survive. Of course, first of all, we must make Vietnam deeply aware of its mistakes before we can help: If you don't think of your own ability to oppose China, you will fend for itself next time.

3. China is also helping itself: the U.S. shearing Vietnam’s wool is a standard act of drinking poison to quench thirst: it not only allows Vietnam to recognize the true face of the United States, pushes Vietnam to China, but also brings the surrounding area and even the world. Most of the countries feel the crisis, objectively promoting the acceleration of their side selection process, and at the same time greatly shrinking the flexibility of the US’s available resources and strategic space in Asia. This is actually helping China and pushing Southeast Asia and neighboring countries into China's embrace.

　　4. Vietnam has not been bitten by a poisonous snake. It will not be afraid. In the future, he will have two hearts and two minds towards China, and may even take revenge on China. Therefore, if China wants to help Vietnam, we can not rush in time. If it is too rush, we will be injured on behalf of Vietnam, which is not worth it. So we won’t help it until the last minute.

　　 5. China can help Vietnam to stabilize, or it can help Vietnam rebuild after its economic collapse. The choice depends on Vietnam's attitude towards China. What China has to do now is to use this financial crisis to urge Vietnam to truly implement "economic integration". We will not mention the specific amount of investment and other issues, but the implementation of China's cooperation with Vietnam will not be due to its current short-term economic shocks. And change, China will not turn a blind eye to Vietnam's plight. We will implement large-scale cooperation projects such as industrial infrastructure construction and energy construction as soon as possible, and will carry out long-term mutually beneficial cooperation. This attitude of China will help stabilize the situation in Vietnam.

　　 6. China is the only cornerstone to stabilize Asia. The key to resolving the Vietnamese financial crisis is not in Vietnam. Just as to solve the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the key is not in Southeast Asian countries. It depends on the role of China as a super stabilizer, and the mainstay is China. Compared with 1997, China's economic strength has improved by more than one series. China's economic fundamentals are good, and it still maintains a fiscal surplus and trade surplus. The financial conditions of other ASEAN countries are also much safer-this is also destined to be confined to a localized scope of the Vietnam financial crisis, instead of spreading to the entire Asia like the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Of course, China will never relax its vigilance against the Vietnam financial crisis because of this. It is necessary to prevent problems from happening before they happen.

　　7. A domino has fallen. The best way is not to rush to chase the fallen dominoes, but to hold the dominoes that are far away from the fallen dominoes. The danger has not yet arrived. If Vietnam is the first domino to fall, then countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and India will be the second and third dominoes-so what China has to do now is US$80 billion in Asian common foreign exchange reserves. What the fund has to do is to help countries around Vietnam that have relatively safe finances and have relatively strong anti-financial crisis capabilities, such as Thailand. The safest first support, and the most friendly support with China, prevent new dominoes from extending forward. under. Hold one, and the one behind will not fall down. When everything is settled down, then go to lift up those dominoes that have fallen, such as Vietnam. It is not necessary for China to come forward to organize, but to get the most benefits at the least cost. Those countries that are supported will definitely appreciate China in their hearts and will get closer and closer to China. China's national interests have also come.

    Thank you for your interest in our corporate culture. Please continue to understand our products: induction sanitary ware, washing machines, solar energy, water heaters, washing equipment, food, garden irrigation, IC card water meters, and solenoid valves for engineering water control systems, solenoid valves, pulse solenoid valves , Bistable pulse solenoid valve, flow valve, small punch solenoid valve, large punch solenoid valve, faucet solenoid valve, induction sanitary ware solenoid valve, integrated faucet solenoid valve, adjustable temperature solenoid valve, solar solenoid valve, washing machine solenoid valve, Garden irrigation solenoid valve.